Alaska’s current election system creates unique challenges for Republicans. The real problem is not in the general election, under Ranked Choice Voting, as many think. No, the real problem lies in the jungle primary. In the primary there is no ranking, and the top four candidates, regardless of party, advance to the general election. If several Republicans split the conservative vote then, Democrats can advance even when they have less overall support.

Imagine three Republicans receiving 20 percent, 10 percent, and 8 percent of the vote. Two Democrats, each with 15 percent, could still slip past the lowest Republicans and take the third and fourth spots on the ballot. That would leave Republicans with only two voices in the general election. To make matters worse, the party-switching rule means a Democrat can re-file as an Independent at the last minute, peeling off moderate or low information Republican votes and further weakening our position. This problem is real, but it can be managed if Republicans are disciplined and strategic.

The first step is coordination. If Republicans are polling below 5 to 8 percent, they should withdraw before the drop-out deadline, not after the primary. That gives conservatives the chance to consolidate votes around stronger candidates. For example, if a candidate at 8 percent drops out and their supporters shift to a fellow Republican, the candidate at 10 percent could move above Democrats holding 15 percent.

Candidates must also be cautious about party-switching. When a Democrat suddenly re-registers to run as a Republican, the effect is confusion; and confusion almost always benefits Democrats. Political foresight is critical. And voter education is just as important. The jungle primary is about survival. The goal must be to send at least three Republicans to the general election. That requires voters to concentrate support on the strongest candidates. Messaging like “Vote Republican to secure our majority” helps keep conservatives focused.

Republicans also need to warn voters about the last-minute Independent trick. When a Democrat rebrands as an Independent, it is not a genuine shift. It is a tactic designed to pull in moderates. Voters must be reminded not to be fooled. Stick with the Republican candidates.

Polling and data should guide these decisions. If one Republican is holding steady at 20 percent while others lag below 5, those weaker candidates must ask themselves whether their campaigns are helping or hurting the Republican cause. Polling can also show when a Democrat or Independent is gaining traction, which signals a risk that Republicans may be pushed out of the top four. These numbers are not about ego. They are about Republican strategy and survival.

The Alaska Republican Party has a critical role to play. When the math is clear, the party must not be afraid to encourage weak candidates to step aside. Future support or endorsements can be offered to make those decisions easier. Early endorsements also help voters see which candidates are strongest, which reduces the risk of fragmentation.

Republicans must also be ready to counter Democrats who switch to Independent. A party label change does not erase a candidate’s record or values. Campaigns should be clear that these Independents still support Democratic policies. If voters are reminded of that fact, they are less likely to be misled.

There is no single answer for every race. If Republicans beyond the frontrunner are polling at 10 to 15 percent, they should stay in. Their presence can help mobilize conservatives, and in the ranked-choice general election, Republican voters can rank each other and keep their votes united electing a Republican. But if candidates are struggling to reach even 5 percent before the deadline to drop out, or if Democrats or Independents are threatening to overtake the lowest Republican, the smarter move for the team is to withdraw. The key is to ensure those voters consolidate behind another Republican rather than drift toward an Independent.

It is the jungle primary, not Ranked Choice Voting, that makes vote splitting the single biggest risk to Republican success. The solution is clear:

· Use polling to assess strength early and act before the ballot deadline.

· Coordinate as a party to consolidate support around the strongest Republicans.

· Educate voters so they are not fooled by party-switching gimmicks.

· Keep party leadership engaged to guide the process and avoid fragmentation.

If Republicans do these things, we can ensure that at least three strong conservatives advance to the general election. And in the General Republicans must rank: Never rank a Democrat and always rank all Republicans. But candidates must also bury their ego and do what is best for the state, not after the primary, but before the deadline to be removed from the ballot. Once there are three Republicans on the ballot, Ranked Choice Voting allows us to rank our candidates and keep conservative votes in the family. But if we fail to plan, we hand Democrats an advantage they have not earned at the ballot box. With discipline and coordination, we can prevent that outcome and secure a Republican majority.

Originally published on Substack: https://kevinjmccabe.substack.com/p/vote-splitting